on the forty-fifth day. at the end of the last hour of the last day the securities act provides, druckenmiller’s q2 13f dropped. not early. not voluntarily. on the final tick of the permitted disclosure period, he revealed what he held on june 30th. and yes, he made us wait every available second before showing it. god bless stan.
as an occasional pessimist. i expected to find stm gone. i wrote about stmicroelectronics in the sleeper chip essay yesterday, i presented the argument, and feared he would have taken the profit and moved on. instead the position is larger. that changed my attention immediately, and this paper is the result.
building a complete macro framework from first principles is a full-time occupation, and most people are doing something else with their lives. druckenmiller is fully focused. he’s legally required to leave four snapshots of his actual capital allocation every year. this is one of them. a 13f is a legal disclosure filed under penalty of perjury, not a conference panel or a letter shaped for a particular audience. these papers exist to make that disclosure legible.
stan’s holdings have a recurring shape: stocks at fulcrum points, where a price ceiling that’s been building for a decade or more finally gives way. and when you run the enterprise value to sales ratios and the ebit margins on what he holds, ken fisher’s super stocks methodology comes back at you from every position. where the five and ten-year averages are useful as context, i’ll use them. the methodology shows up in the holdings without needing to be announced.
the filing contains more than what’s covered here. he bought back into airlines, and their charts are something i’ll return to. there are call options in tesla, but the 13f doesn’t tell you whether they’re directional or a hedge against a short position, and i won’t speculate on what the disclosure doesn’t say. the positions below are the ones where the argument is clear enough to be worth making.
