𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚒𝚛𝚌𝚊𝚜𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝟸𝟻𝟶 𝚍𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚊𝚛-𝚢𝚎𝚗.

𝚑𝚘𝚠 𝚒'𝚟𝚎 𝚌𝚘𝚖𝚎 𝚝𝚘 𝚝𝚑𝚒𝚗𝚔 𝚘𝚏 𝚒𝚗𝚟𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚒𝚗𝚐.

i’ve been calling for 200 almost since the day dollar yen first traded above 150 in october 2022.

it wasn’t a stupid forecast to disagree with me. it was the respectable forecast. the fed would eventually cut rates, america’s yield advantage would disappear, the dollar would weaken and the whole episode would quietly unwind itself. every investment bank had some variation of the same bedtime story. 110 wasn’t merely a target. it was equilibrium. it was home. everything above it was temporary, a distortion created by emergency monetary policy. when i started whispering 200 they didn’t merely disagree. they laughed. one or two decided i’d finally become the village drunk. that’s alright. markets have always rewarded independent thought long before they reward social approval.

the mistake wasn’t their economics. the mistake was believing economics had to lead price. i don’t think investing works like that. i wrote recently that the real battle isn’t between bulls and bears. it’s between two instincts inside your own head. the monkey mind sees a breakout and wants to buy. the intellectual mind wants another research paper, another valuation model, another reassuring explanation before it commits any capital. everybody imagines the second instinct is the sophisticated one. experience has taught me almost the opposite. prices move first. explanations usually arrive afterwards. sometimes years afterwards. occasionally they never arrive at all. that’s why i’ve stayed with this trade.